UPA Bomb Brewing!

Hello Friends,

In my last post, I have indicated that equities all over the world are set to boom, and have requested all members to STAY INVESTED for a Nifty target of 15000. Yes the next bull phase will see nothing less than 15K nifty level. Any bull phase, in its beginning stage will see attempts by Bears to pull the index down, and we have already seen that two months back when nifty almost touched 5200 levels due to bear hammering. Once this attempt is done with, we can safely assume that nifty journey will now be smooth upto 15000.

However, there is one possibility which we can term as Local Factor, which can give us all a last chance to pick the shares we missed out last time. Call it a Golden Chance which may be presented to us in a few months from now. What is that Local Factor? Read on.......

Last 5 months in India, many political, economic and social developments have happened, and keep happening. I consider them as COMPONENTS OF A BOMB placed on the table. Here are a few examples:

2G Scam, Raja arrested, DMK involvement, Kanimozhi charge sheeted, Anna Hazare, Subramanyam Swamy, TN Election, WB Election, Old Bosses sitting with no job (Gowda, Lalu, Mulayam), Food Inflation, Arrest of Corporate Bigwigs, Swiss Money, and you can go on adding....

These components are presently being wired without any body knowing that all these components are ones required to make a UPA BOMB which ultimately result in FALL of UPA II GOVT. Some wiring somewhere can ignite the Bomb. I feel if Mamata comes to power without Congress dependence, and if DMK loses power, the wiring will have come close to getting ignited, and it will be only a matter of time before actual igniting will take place. The fall of the Govt will give a KNEE JERK level of nifty. So members can not only remain Invested, they should also keep sufficient liquidity with them, to take advantage of this Golden Chance.

Possible levels of some of the shares if the above Golden Chance does take place: Unitech 9, Reliance Communication 49, Reliance Capital 199, Colgate 599, RIL 490, Videocon Ind 99, etc. etc. Nifty may even fall below 4500 but the lower level will not remain for long. It will be only for a few days or some level may even be only for a few hours.

Keep your fingers crossed, and wait for the Golden Opportunity. Chances of such a situation right now is 50:50.

kadiyali.

Equities All Over the World All Set to Boom

Hello Friends,

First it was the real estate prices all over the world which boomed beyond expectation.

Then it was the turn of Gold, followed by Silver, yes the Precious Metals were the next in the line which were taken up for Bull Run.

The traders then took up all kinds of metals, one by one, and all of them without exception touched dizzy heights.

Oil was the next in the list.

Even the food items were not spared. We saw all the food items taken up for Bull Run, and all of them were taken up one by one. Even onions were not spared whenever an opportunity was presented to the traders.

What do you think is the next? Yes your answer is as good as mine! Of course, it is EQUITIES all over the world. Stay invested in select investment picks for a nifty target of minimum 15000.

Derivative instruments are the tools for these traders all over the world to make money out of thin air. Why not we participate in Equities on cash basis, and ride on their derivative race?

kadiyali.

Full Stop for Paid Service

Hello Friends,

I have created a new blog to give trading calls in OPTIONs. The name of the blog is "ONE OPTION A MONTH", or in short " OOAM BLOG".

It is going to be a free blog for all visitors of my existing blog FIFTY POINTS A DAY.

I will give only one call every month. It will be either nifty option or stock option. The trading call will be for only OUT OF THE MONEY (OTM) calls or puts, and the investment is going to be very much limited, with good scope for appreciation. No STOP LOSS for the trading calls, as all calls will be for OTM calls/puts with small investment.

Comments section will be open. All readers are free to place their comments. However I reserve my right to either reply or just ignore.

I will allot only around two hours every week, and mostly this time will be away from the trading hours. Time allotted will be used to reply the comments of the readers. However kindly restrict the qeuries only on options trading.

"Subscribe by Email" facility has been enabled, so that members can get the trading calls immediately by an email.

I wish you all good luck in Options Trading through my "OOAM BLOG".

kadiyali

PS: You may access the OOAM BLOG by loging in oneoptionamonth.blogspot.com OR just click on the VIEW MY COMPLETE PROFILE on the right side of this blog.

WAIT FOR CATCHES BEHIND THE STUMPS

I have already informed you all in my earlier posts, that every multi-year bull phase will start with bear pressures in the initial stages. We are in the beginning stage of a MULTI YEAR BULL RUN, my target of which is NIFTY 15000! Stay invested in stocks I have recommended, because most of them will give us multi fold appreciations in the years to come.

I had given in my last post a list of stocks of FV 10 with CMP below 100, for you to consider investing for long term. A few of them have already gone back into 3 figure price. Now I request you to 1) keep a watch on the following FV 10 shares which are being traded above 100, 2) wait for them to fall below 100, and 3) just grab them like any wicket keeper behind the stumps waiting for that rare snick of the bat. DO CATCH THEM, AND DONT FLOOR THE CHANCES COMING YOUR WAY:

1. Prestige Estates - FV 10 - CMP 120.

2. India Glycol - FV 10 - CMP 115.

3.Garden Silks - FV 10 - CMP 116.

4. Ceat Ltd - FV 10 - CMP 110.

5. IFB Industries - FV 10 - CMP 130.

6. IDBI Bank - FV 10 - CMP 136.

List inconclusive, will be expanded shortly.

kadiyali.

HUNT FOR FV 10 SHARES BELOW 100 CMP

It is time for bargain hunting of fundamentally strong shares with growth potentials, now that the maximum possible damage has already been done by bears. The strength of these bears will fizzle out soon, and we will see a confirmation of the market having taken a U turn.

Hunt for shares with FV 10 which are available at market price of below 100. There are many long standing companies with good project which are available below 100 despite their FV being original 10. Here are the examples:

1. Brigade Enterprise - FV 10 - CMP 93

2. Arvind Mills - FV 10 - CMP 59

3. Garden Silks - FV 10 - CMP 98

4. Spice Jet - FV 10 - CMP 39

5. Nitesh Estates - FV 10 - CMP 25

6. Moser Bear - FV 10 - CMP 39

7. Subex Systems - FV 10 - CMP 59

8. Eveready - FV 5 - CMP 48

9. IFB Ind - FV 10 - CMP 99

10. Wintac - FV 10 - CMP 36

11. IFCI - FV 10 - CMP 51

12. Country Club - FV 2 - CMP 11

13. Fedder Lloyd - FV 10 - CMP 69

14. Lloyd Electric - FV 10 - CMP 55

15. Trend Electronics - FV 10 - CMP 65

16. Zicom Security - FV 10 - CMP 37

17. Heidelberg Cement - FV 10 - CMP 36

18. MRPL - FV 10 - CMP 62

You will see the market capitalisation of these companies growing by leaps & bounds over a period of next few years. Stay invested in a portfolio of the above shares and see the appreciation in the years to come.

I will expand this list within the next 7 days. Keep tuned in.

kadiyali.

BUILD A MINI REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO

The market correction has thrown a fantastic opportunity to build a MINI REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO OF BANGALORE BASED COMPANIES.

The companies are 1) Prestige Projects (FV 10 - CMP 120), 2) Brigade Enterprises (FV 10 - CMP 92) and 3) Nitesh Estates (FV 10 - CMP 25). All these 3 shares are Rs 10 paid up Face Value, and all are available well below their IPO prices.

All these companies are among top real estate companies of Bangalore, with Prestige and Brigade having a standing of more than 15 years, though Nitesh Estates is comparatively a recent entrant into the market.

BUY 100 shares each of Prestige and Brigade, and 300 shares of Nitesh, OR in similar multiples/ratio, depending on the size of your portfolio. All these companies shares will double in a period of 12-18 months, and whenever the share prices double, DO SELL 50%, MAKE BALANCE 50% FREE, and HOLD FREE SHARES for long, long term.

kadiyali.

PHARMA SECTOR TO OUTPERFORM - STAY INVESTED

Market has seen the correction, giving those who were in the sidelines a fantastic opportunity to buy and stay invested. This happens during the beginning phase of every multi-year bull phase, and it happened during the current bull phase too. Stay invested is all that I can say for those who want to follow me.

PHARMA SECTOR will be the dark horse during this bull phase, and this sector will outperform beyond the expectations of any analysts. You will see all the shares of pharma companies getting split into FV 1 within 2-3 years. Buy into this sector heavily, and stay invested till the Nifty reaches 15K, whenever it happens.

RECOMMENDATIONS: I have already recommended investment in Abbott (FV 10 - CMP 1200) on SIP basis. My second recommendation in this sector is RANBAXY (FV 5 - CMP 500). Buy Ranbaxy in an initial lot of 10-20 shares, and keep adding 5 shares every month on SIP basis.

WINTAC LTD (FV 10 - CMP 32): The company formerly known as Recon Ltd, is having a small equity of Rs 4.54 cr, a major portion of which is held by the promoters. The turnover of the company which was struggling to go beyond 15cr, has shown a healthy growth last year by crossing 20cr. This year turnover is likely to touch 25cr. The company has recently made a global tie up with a well known US based generic company for an eye drop called "Latanoprost", and the US patent of this product is expiring shortly, and the company's product which has received USFDA approval will be sold in US at a lower price than the patented one. The company has for the first time in their history has started working in 3 shifts, which will contribute to a very good growth from next year.

Buy this share in the range of 32-35 for a target of 100 by March 2012.

kadiyali.

BEAR MARKET??? Absolutely No!!!

It is very common during the early phase of bull run, the stocks do fall in such a way investors start feeling there will be a prolonged bearishness. But the market will suddenly take a U turn, and resumes the bull run with vengeance.

Just hold your investments and if funds position permits go on adding to your portfolio. If I say Provogue is good at 60 for investment, and we buy some quantity, and if the same share falls below 40, take it as an opportunity and add more.

All my investment picks if bought at current levels will be multibaggers.

AVOID PANICK, HAVE PATIENCE, DO INVEST DESPITE FALL IN INDEX.

kadiyali.

DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCKS - 27.01.2011 (Thursday)

STOCK FUTURES TRADES

19.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Colgate Palmolive Feb11 series @ Rs 843.

20.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Aban Offshore Feb11 series @ Rs 709.

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NIFTY FUTURES 11am CALL

11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 5704 against its previous close of 5684, and is currently trading at 5672. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 5715 & a LOW of 5665. Asian cues are positive, US futures are just flat, and European markets may open flat today. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 5660-5730 in a range bound trade.

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NIFTY INTRADAY TRADES

12.09pm: Bought nifty at 5673. Target 5720. SL 5654.

12.34pm: SL hit at 5654. Loss 19 points.

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NIFTY FUTURES TRADES RECORD

1. Total Trades: 6

2. Winning Trades: 3

3. Losing Trades: 3

4. Points Gained: 79

5. Points Lost: 45

6. Net Gain: 34

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DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCKS - 25.01.2011 (Tuesday)

STOCK FUTURES TRADES

19.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Colgate Palmolive Feb11 series @ Rs 843.

20.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Aban Offshore Feb11 series @ Rs 709.

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NIFTY FUTURES 11am CALL

11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 5760 against its previous close of 5740, and is currently trading at 5771. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 5776 & a LOW of 5750. Asian cues are positive, US futures are just flat, and European markets may open in positive today. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 5750-5840. Watch out for heavy short covering during closing hours today.

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NIFTY INTRADAY TRADES

11.53am: Bought nifty at 5765. SL 5749. Target 5810.

12.19pm: SL hit at 5749. Loss 16 points.

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NIFTY FUTURES TRADES RECORD

1. Total Trades: 5

2. Winning Trades: 3

3. Losing Trades: 2

4. Points Gained: 79

5. Points Lost: 26

6. Net Gain: 53

DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCKS - 24.01.2011 (Monday)

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STOCK FUTURES TRADES

19.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Colgate Palmolive Feb11 series @ Rs 843.

20.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Aban Offshore Feb11 series @ Rs 709.

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NIFTY FUTURES 11am CALL

11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 5705 against its previous close of 5700, and is currently trading at 5741. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 5752 & a LOW of 5695. Asian cues are positive, US futures are in green, and European markets may open in positive today. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 5695-5770.

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NIFTY INTRADAY TRADES

11.45am: Sold nifty at 5757. SL 5760. Target 5715.

12.40pm: Booked out early at 5730. Gain 27 points.

12.53pm: Bought nifty at 5721. SL 5694. Target 5770.

3.28pm: Booked out in closing stage at 5743. Gain 22 points.

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NIFTY TRADES RECORD UNDER 6-POINTS FORMULA

1. Total Trades: 4

2. Winning Trades: 3

3. Losing Trades: 1

4. Points Gained: 79

5. Points Lost: 10

6. Net Gain: 69

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DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCKS - 21.01.2011 (Friday)

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STOCK FUTURES TRADES

19.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Colgate Palmolive - Feb11 series @ Rs 843.

20.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Aban Offshore - Feb11 series @ Rs 709.

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NIFTY FUTURES 11am CALL

11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 5698 against its previous close of 5718, and is currently trading at 5693. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 5715 & a LOW of 5682. Asian cues are negative, US futures are in red, and European markets may open little changed today. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 5670-5740.

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NIFTY FUTURES INTRADAY TRADES

11.10am: Sold nifty at 5706. SL 5716. Target 5672.

12.13pm: SL hit at 5716. Loss 10 points.

1.48pm: Bought nifty at 5673. SL 5661. Target 5726.

3.15pm: Booked out at 5703. Gain 30 points.

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NIFTY TRADES UNDER 6-POINTS FORMULA

1. Total Trades: 2
2. Winning Trades: 1
3. Losing Trades: 1
4. Points Gained: 30
5. Points Lost: 10
6. Net Gain: 20

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STOCK FUTURES

Here is a method to earn profits out of investments made by all of you in stocks recommended by me. Pl follow the instructions carefully:

1. Ensure that all the investments made by you are in one demat account, preferably in a sound & well known brokerage house like ICICI Bank.

2. Do not mix any of your trading positions including short term stock trades in this account.

3. Create "FnO Margin" by just pledging the shares held by you for long term. Every brokerage house allows this by giving a margin against all shares after deducting the fixed "hair cut". For example, for Balaji Telefilms, ICICI Bank deducts only 15% hair cut, and allows a margin of 85% of the market value of the shares.

4. Utilise the "FnO Margin" created as above for stock futures trading. The thumb rule is if you have created a margin of Rs 1 lakh, you should never use more than Rs 50,000 worth of margin for stock futures, allowing the balance 50000 for MTM losses if any.

5. I will do this shortly, create FnO margin for the purpose of stock futures, take positions in selected counters, only one at any given time, and place my trades in this blog. Members may just watch this space, see the performance of such trades, and then follow the trades.

6. All my trades will be in first class counters like Colgate, and the margin required for one lot of such shares will be in the region of 30-40K, which means you need to create a FnO margin of 70-80K by the above method.

I request all those who want to follow the above trades, to ensure that they dont deviate from any rules which I have mentioned above. Overtrading is strict NO NO, and ensure that you have an outstanding position only in one counter, and that too for one lot.

kadiyali.

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DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCK - 20.01.2011 (Thursday)

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STOCK FUTURES TRADES

19.01.2011: Long in one lot (250 shares) of Colgate Palmolive Feb 11 Futures @ 843.00

20.01.2011: Bought one lot (250) shares of Aban Offshore Feb 11 Futures @ Rs 709.

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KADIYALI'S 6 POINTS INTRADAY NIFTY TRADE FORMULA

3pm: I gave the 6 points formula for Intraday Nifty Trade only to be of use to members who want to trade in nifty every day on intraday basis. Pl study the same, and make paper trades for next 10 trading days, and look at the result yourself!

The detailed 6 points formula is available in my post dated 19.01.2011.

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DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCKS - 19.01.2011 (Wednesday)

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STOCK FUTURES TRADES
19.01.2011: Bought one lot (250) of Colgate Palmolive Feb Series @ 843.00.

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MY SIP PORTFOLIO HOLDIGS:
1. Colgate Palmolive
2. MRF
3. Abbott
Buy the above shares in small lots of 1/2/3 shares every month out of your savings or profit booked in shares, build up wealth slowly & steadily.

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NIFTY FUTURES 11AM CALL
11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 5740 against its previous close of 5732, and is currently trading at 5737. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 5740 & a LOW of 5710. Asian cues are positive, US futures are in green, and European markets may open in positive today. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 5710-5790.
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INTRADAY NIFTY TRADE

1.48pm: Bought nifty at 5686. Target 5740/5760. SL 5679.

2.35pm: SL hit at 5679. Loss 7 points.

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TRY THIS OUT FOR INTRADAY NIFTY TRADE

1. Look at the NF range recorded till 11am given in my 11am nifty view.

2. Go long at 10 points +/- the morning low. If you are going long 10 points above the morning low, keep SL 1 point below the morning low. If you are going long 10 points below the morning low, keep SL at 31 points below morning low.

3. Go short at 10 points +/- the morning high. If you are going short 10 points below the morning high, keep SL 1 point above morning high. If you are going short 10 points above morning high, keep SL 31 points above morning high.

4. For example, if the 11am range is 5710-5740, you can go long either at 5720 or at 5700. If long at 5720, SL is 5709. If long at 5700, SL is at 5679.

5. Similarly, you can go short either at 5730 or at 5750. If short at 5730, SL is 5741. If short at 5750, SL is at 5771.

6. Target should always be 10 points above morning high if long, and 10 points below morning low if short.

Complete an exercise of paper trading of Nifty Futures trading for next 10 trading days based on above rules, and look at the results yourself.

Call this as Kadiyali's 6 points Formula for Nifty Intraday Trading.

kadiyali.

MAKARA SANKRANTI GREETINGS - 14.01.2011 (Friday)

FIFTYPOINTSADAY WISHES ALL ITS MEMBERS, VISITORS & READERS

A VERY HAPPY MAKARA SANKRANTI

I will be back on 19th January Wednesday.

kadiyali.

DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCKS - 06.01.2011 (Thursday)

Nifty Futures 11am Call

11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 6129 against its previous close of 6104, and is currently trading at 6083. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 6134 & a LOW of 6079. Asian cues are positive, US futures are just flat, and European markets may open slightly negative but may get back into positive. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 6070-6160.

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Portfolio Trade

Bought 300 ZICOM SECURITY SYSTEMS @ 53 under Normal Portfolio.

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Nifty Intraday Trade

11.25am: Bought Nifty at 6085. Target 6150/6160. SL 6069.

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DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCK - 04.01.2011 (Tuesday)

Nifty Futures 11am Call

11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 6197 against its previous close of 6182, and is currently trading at 6169. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 6208 & a LOW of 6158. Asian cues are positive, US futures are just flat, and European markets may open little changed today. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 6110-6208.
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ZICOM SECURITY SYSTEMS LTD

My first Investment Pick of 2011 is "ZICOM SECURITY SYSTEMS" - FV 10 - CMP 54 - 52 Weeks High 134 - 52 weeks Low 46.50. Equity 12.70cr.
The stock is available very close to its 52 Weeks Low. The company has sold its Government & Institutional segments of its security systems business to Luxembourg based Schneider for a whopping 225 crores since April 2010, and will utilise a part of the cash generated into the business of managed security services to telecom operators for their Base Tower Stations (BTS). They will also develop their retail & SME segments for their existing security systems.
BUY this share for a 2-3 years term. My Target for this share is 200 in 36 months.

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DAILY VIEWS ON NIFTY & STOCK - 02.01.2011 (Monday)

Nifty Futures 11am Call:

11am: Nifty Futures opened today at 6202 against its previous close of 6162, and is currently trading at 6183. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 6207 & a LOW of 6181. Asian cues are positive, US futures are in green, and European market may open in positive today. The trading range for NF today is likely to be 6180-6250.

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Portfolio Trade

Bought 3 shares of MRF Ltd at 7290 under SIP Portfolio.

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STOCK FUTURES

Here is a method to earn profits out of investments made by all of you in stocks recommended by me. Pl follow the instructions carefully:

1. Ensure that all the investments made by you are in one demat account, preferably in a sound & well known brokerage house like ICICI Bank.

2. Do not mix any of your trading positions including short term stock trades in this account.

3. Create "FnO Margin" by just pledging the shares held by you for long term. Every brokerage house allows this by giving a margin against all shares after deducting the fixed "hair cut". For example, for Balaji Telefilms, ICICI Bank deducts only 15% hair cut, and allows a margin of 85% of the market value of the shares.

4. Utilise the "FnO Margin" created as above for stock futures trading. The thumb rule is if you have created a margin of Rs 1 lakh, you should never use more than Rs 50,000 worth of margin for stock futures, allowing the balance 50000 for MTM losses if any.

5. I will do this shortly, create FnO margin for the purpose of stock futures, take positions in selected counters, only one at any given time, and place my trades in this blog. Members may just watch this space, see the performance of such trades, and then follow the trades.

6. All my trades will be in first class counters like Colgate, and the margin required for one lot of such shares will be in the region of 30-40K, which means you need to create a FnO margin of 70-80K by the above method.

I request all those who want to follow the above trades, to ensure that they dont deviate from any rules which I have mentioned above. Overtrading is strict NO NO, and ensure that you have an outstanding position only in one counter, and that too for one lot.

kadiyali.

HAPPY NEW YEAR - 2011

Fiftypointsaday team wishes all its members, followers, visitors and readers

A HAPPY & HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL NEW YEAR 2011.

kadiyali

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NIFTY TARGET 15000!!!

The bull phase has just been confirmed. The fear of double dip recession has vanished. Indian stock market has entered a new phase of bull run which may extend for next 5 years. Periodical profit taking is just part of any bull run. We may even see some deeper corrections during this bull phase. But all corrections will be promptly bought into, enabling resumption of the uptrend. Hold your investments already made, and to be made from now on for a Nifty Target of 15000. I expect Nifty to touch this target anywhere from Oct 2012 to March 2013. This means the holding period is going to be just another two years. DO FOLLOW MY GOLDEN RULE OF SELLING 50% OF THE HOLDINGS IN ANY SCRIP WHEN THE SAME DOUBLES FROM THE BUY PRICE TO 1) MAKE THE BALANCE ABSOLUTELY FREE, AND 2) RELEASE THE INVESTMENT IN THAT SCRIP TO INVEST IN SOME OTHER PICKS.

FOLLOW THE FOLLOWING:

1. Invest only owned funds, and avoid borrowing for the purpose of investment in stocks.

2. If funds are limited, cultivate pushing a part of the savings every month into equities, and build up a decent portfolio over a period of time.

3. Build up a decent FnO margin out of the holdings of shares invested, and take some selective LONG positions in stock futures. (A detailed write up will follow very soon this week regarding this strategy).

4. Have a diversified Portfolio, and avoid placing all eggs in a single basket.

5. Book profits only applying Golden Rule.

6. No Stop Loss is required for Investment Picks, as well as LONG positions in stock futures.

When Nifty touches its target of 15K, most of my picks will outperform nifty. You can see some of them appreciate even 10 times over a period of 3-5 years.

kadiyali.

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