Thursday, July 30, 2009

DAILY REPORT ON NIFTY BY kadiyali - 30.07.09 (Friday)

Nifty Futures Morning Call

Nifty Futures opened today at 4479 against its previous close of 4512, and is currently trading at 4506. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 4513 & a LOW of 4473. Asian cues are negative, US futures are in green, and European markets may open today in positive. Today being the last day of settlement for Indian markets, we may see a zig zag volatility but within a small range for a major portion of the day. However, the last 1-2 hours of trade is likely to yield to bear pressure, and nifty may close well below 4450 for this expiry. NF  may trade in the range of 4420-4540 today.

Market Closing Report

Nifty closed this July series at 4570, up 57 points from yesterday, and up 328 points from previous expiry.

NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty had a rangebound trade today on this last day of July expiry, beginning the trade in the morning in negative, ending the day in positive at day's high, closing at 4571, up 58 points from previous day's close, and up 329 points from previous expiry. FIIs net bought 366cr & DIIs net sold 286cr. Nifty is now almost midway between the bears' target of 4350 & bulls' target of 4700, with 4600 as crucial point below which bears will continue to enjoy the upper hand.

Nifty levels for 31.07.09 Friday are: PIVOT 4542, R1 4611 & R2 4650, S1 4503 & S2 4434.

Posted by at

42 comments:

  1. PurushothamanJuly 30, 2009 at 11:11 AM

    Dear sir,
    Thanks for the advice i will follow ur call as per ur advice.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 11:18 AM

    Dear kadiyali Sir,

    I am going to buy 2 lots of 4600PE & 2 of 4500PE now for july series.

    Please give report if NIFTY is going to change its direction.

    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 11:24 AM

    bought 2 lots of 4600PE at 85/- and 2 lots of 4500PE at 20.25/-

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownJuly 30, 2009 at 11:25 AM

    Sir
    Shall i pickup 2 lots of 4500 pe at 18/- ?

    Rgrds,Arvind

    ReplyDelete
  5. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 11:44 AM

    Today is the last day of settlement, and whatever money put in options will become zero if nifty direction goes against the option taken. General expectation today will be an expiry between 4450-4550, which means 4600PE taken at 80 may lose only 30 out of it maximum, and 4500PE taken at 20 may wipe out the entire money deployed. On the positive side, yesterday's trade has given upper hand for bears. So 90% chances are nifty will close lower side of this 4450-4550 band, though global cues are positive. An outside chance is NF may even fall below 4400 temporarily before closing above 4400. Calls will have better valuation in the first half of the trade, and puts may have better valuation in the second. So if anybody wants to bet today, odds are in favour of bears.
    I dont have any position right now, nor do I intend to take one.

    ReplyDelete
  6. anuragJuly 30, 2009 at 11:50 AM

    Dear Kadiyali Sir,

    I wish to buy 4200PE for aug series @55,Pls share your views

    ReplyDelete
  7. RajatJuly 30, 2009 at 12:18 PM

    Dear Kadiyali,

    I intend to short MINIFTy (20 shares) today around 4550-4570 with a SL of 4610. What do you suggest? Your views are highly needed.

    Thanks
    Rajat

    ReplyDelete
  8. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 12:23 PM

    Dear Rajat,
    I think you can go ahead with your NF short above 4543. Rgrds.

    ReplyDelete
  9. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 12:24 PM

    Just a typo, above 4553, 9 points above the current high of 4544.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 35percentaday.comJuly 30, 2009 at 12:29 PM

    Hi Kadiyali,
    Do you still expect a close below 4450 ?

    Regards,
    Himanshu

    ReplyDelete
  11. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 12:29 PM

    4500PE is now at 14. 200 nos will be costing only 2800. Those who have made money yesterday can risk. Target 40.

    ReplyDelete
  12. RajatJuly 30, 2009 at 12:35 PM

    Kadiyali,

    So you feel SL of 4610 is adequate or i should decrease it.
    Minifty August has hit a high of 4555.

    Thanks
    Rajat

    ReplyDelete
  13. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 12:38 PM

    Dear Rajat,
    I told my level for July NF, for August, you can add 10 more points, but SL 4610 is okay.

    ReplyDelete
  14. VJJuly 30, 2009 at 12:49 PM

    dear kadiyali

    i have aug 4000 strike puts at average price 50.waht should i do now?

    is there any chance we can see profit booking on friday evening i.e tomorrow

    ReplyDelete
  15. VJJuly 30, 2009 at 12:49 PM

    dear kadiyali

    i have aug 4000 strike puts at average price 50.waht should i do now?

    is there any chance we can see profit booking on friday evening i.e tomorrow

    ReplyDelete
  16. VJJuly 30, 2009 at 12:58 PM

    can we see nifty around 4380 or 4420 some time today evening or tomorrow evening

    so that i can get rid of my aug 4000 strike puts

    ReplyDelete
  17. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 1:17 PM

    Dear vijaya,
    You have ample time not to worry about your 4000PE of August series. I expect nifty to touch 4320 before it can go past 4693 its June high. So you can get out of 4000PE once nifty slips below 4350. Rgrds.

    ReplyDelete
  18. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 1:23 PM

    Kadiyali sir,

    nifty slowly sliding down as you expected.
    eurpoean markets also turn into flat.

    From here onwards i need your views on what is probability of nifty to reach below 4500 today?

    If some thing turning into positive please alert me immediatly.

    I took positions on 4600PE.
    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

    ReplyDelete
  19. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 1:36 PM

    Dear Ramesh,
    In all probability this day will turn out to be one of the dullest expiry days. Chances of nifty closing above 4550 is 10%, 4500-4550 is 30%, between 4450-4500 is 40%, and below 4450 is 20%. Rgrds.

    ReplyDelete
  20. sanjivJuly 30, 2009 at 1:41 PM

    kadiyaliji,namste
    I am holding-minifty future july30-4509short=1lot,miniftyfuture august30-short=4520-2lot,4500PE JULY30=1LOT*50@10
    Please guide me if by today close i can book profits.
    regards
    sanjiv

    ReplyDelete
  21. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 2:14 PM

    Kadiyali Sir,

    Now market irritating me.

    Atleast if i get my price back then wanted close position but it is not coming.

    My avg price on 4600PE is 79/-
    we have only 1hr left.

    your views please sir.

    ReplyDelete
  22. VJJuly 30, 2009 at 2:17 PM

    kadiyali i am a telugu person .u too from andhra ??

    ReplyDelete
  23. UnknownJuly 30, 2009 at 2:21 PM

    hey rams,
    keep cool things may change in last half hour, till that keep fingers cross............

    ReplyDelete
  24. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 2:33 PM

    lets see...
    if nifty comes to 4510 level then i am okay.

    ReplyDelete
  25. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 2:47 PM

    Dear kadiyali Sir,

    There was sudden down and again up.

    Shell cover my position? What is best time to close position?

    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

    ReplyDelete
  26. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 2:53 PM

    Dear ramesh,
    Just allow 4600PE to lapse.

    ReplyDelete
  27. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 2:55 PM

    I could not understand.
    You mean leave it expire?

    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

    ReplyDelete
  28. VJJuly 30, 2009 at 2:59 PM

    dear kadiyali garu

    u did'nt reply to me sir are u from andhra do u know telugu sir

    ReplyDelete
  29. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 3:07 PM

    Sir,

    If i am not going to close my 4600PE today,

    Will they adjust my profit or loss to account or will they deduct full amount if am not going close?

    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

    ReplyDelete
  30. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 3:13 PM

    ramesh, 4600 minus nifty close in spot, will be credited to you after settlement, may take one or two days. If nifty closes above 4600, you will not get anything.

    ReplyDelete
  31. ANIRUDDHAJuly 30, 2009 at 3:18 PM

    what happens to 4400 put?

    ReplyDelete
  32. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 3:18 PM

    Ok thanks,

    which one is better in my case, shell i close just before market close or let it be expire?

    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

    ReplyDelete
  33. SuchIsLifeJuly 30, 2009 at 3:19 PM

    Kadiyaliji..

    i think the Nifty is set to close arnd 4600... Shd we wait for ur weekly report or do u suggest to buy any puts for Aug series.. pls suggest

    ReplyDelete
  34. UnknownJuly 30, 2009 at 3:26 PM

    it's so sad. i bought 4lot 4500pe@8. completely lasped. :( :(

    ReplyDelete
  35. ramsfmJuly 30, 2009 at 3:34 PM

    dear kadiyali sir,

    i have not closed my positions on both 4600PE and 4500PE.

    As you sad i may get only 25/- outof my avg price 79/-.

    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

    ReplyDelete
  36. kadiyaliJuly 30, 2009 at 3:39 PM

    srini/ramesh, as I said earlier buying options on last day is just a bet. Any other day, it can swing back from a low to high next day, but on last day, the swinging has to happen before 3.30PM otherwise the entire amount is gone.

    ReplyDelete
  37. RAJ/QRJuly 30, 2009 at 4:03 PM

    please see ur e.mail id fiftypointsaday@rediffmail.com
    I send one mail
    Rajagopalan

    ReplyDelete
  38. coolboy1966July 31, 2009 at 5:58 AM

    Dear Kadiyaliji
    Now a days market is really testing our patience. I trade in minify futures only. If I go short mkt rises, If I take long mkt falls. I have lost Rs.10000 in july in minifty.
    As a salaried person this loss is pinching me lot. One of my friend advised me to hedge position . could you give me some strategy from your experience to minimise loss for me .

    ReplyDelete
  39. kadiyaliJuly 31, 2009 at 10:57 AM

    coolboy1966, hedging is absolutely required if you carry NF position overnight. Best thing is to trade in NF only intraday. You will be able to open trading terminal every day with a cool mind without any pressure, and whichever way the market is likely to go, you should take a position.
    Today instead of hedging, you can square off the NF short, and buy nifty call 4800CE below 105 for intraday. Dont carry even options overnight unless you have bought them at a price of 30-60. Rgrds.

    ReplyDelete
  40. kadiyaliJuly 31, 2009 at 11:02 AM

    coolboy1966,
    There is a good possibility of nifty closing today below 4600. So instead of squaring off your short, and taking a 4800CE as suggested above, you may wait for squaring off the short below 4600 level. Rgrds.

    ReplyDelete
  41. RajatJuly 31, 2009 at 11:11 AM

    Kadiyali,

    God saved me yesterday i guess. My broker terminal was down and fund transfer didnt work so i couldnt short nifty fut.

    I intend to take the 4500 PE today as seems Nifty is peaking out. What do you suggest? Also my eyes were on ICICI 700 put.

    ReplyDelete
  42. AnonymousJuly 31, 2009 at 3:16 PM

    Dear Kadiyali Sir,

    Please don't stop giving NF interaday calls on your blog or MMB as you mentioned about shorting NF at 4655.

    Regards
    Arvind

    ReplyDelete

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