WEEK GONE BY
Nifty after recording a big gain of 370 points in the last week, continued its uptrend to add some more decent gain, and closed this week at 4568, up 194 points. After opening the first trading day on Monday with a positive gap, it never fell below its previous week's close of 4374. The high for the week was 4578 touched on Friday & the low for the week was 4380 touched on Wednesday.
WEEK AHEAD
Having posted robust gains for the two weeks, Nifty may trade with high volatility in this July expiry week, and end the week NEAR FLAT. The trading range for nifty for this week is likely to be 4390-4630.
STRATEGY FOR THE WEEK
1. If you are long, liquidate your longs once nifty goes past 4600.
2. If you are short, wait for a level below 4450 to cover the same.
3. Nifty puts of the strike rate 4300 & below may find themselves in the losing side this expiry, and it is better they convert the same into 4500PE.
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS.
Balaji Telefilms CMP 48, BUY below 45 for a target of 60 within a fortnight.
OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS.
My Options picks for this week are nifty puts 4500PE (CMP 42) & 4600PE (CMP 85).
1. BUY 4500PE (CMP 42) if you get it below 30 on Monday (only Monday) for a target of 60. On achieving the target, sell half & carry the balance half till expiry.
2. BUY 4600PE (CMP 85) if you get it below 60 on Monday/Tuesday, and allow it to expire on Thursday.
Note: As we are entering the last 4 days of the July expiry, above options can be categorised as HIGH RISK trades, and hence we should go for it only in small quantities & out of our existing trading profits.
kadiyaliji,
ReplyDeleteI had sold 5 lots of nifty at 4450av.
was expecting nifty to touch 4300 last week once. Did not happen.
Worried now. Should i book it out on monday-27th?
kushhal
Kadiyaliji The movement of Nifty is not being understood by experienced players also one day it shows sign of weakness as if it is going to breakdown and the other day it shows huge strength and again goes up on down side it just corrects 50 - 60 points but on upside it moves up 100 points plus.The movement in mid caps in both direction is huge it has become very difficult to take positions in cash shares also as it corrects 10% within one session and then moves up only 4-5% when there is upmove i think right now new investments should not be made but to wait patiently for a correction of minimum 8-10% before making any investment. What you think of Reliance result and what impact it will have on the nifty on monday.Have been following you silently for a few months and have benefited a lot in understanding the movement of the nifty but of late i have gone quite wrong in gauging the market. Please suggest what you think of the next week keeping in view that this is the week of the expiry. Thanks & Best Regars
ReplyDeleteSanjay Chowdhury
Dear kushhal,
ReplyDeleteI feel you may get a level below 4450 well before expiry to come out of your NF short without loss. However, do not to square off the moment it falls below 4450 without waiting for gains in this hitherto losing trade. Rgrds.
Dear jittery,
ReplyDeleteWe were in a trading market for the last 9 months, and are likely to continue in a trading market for the next 9 months. Nifty is behaving the way you have described only due to this fact. So it will be prudent if we stay largely in cash. If people do not want to enter F&O for trading, they can still trade in stocks on a short term basis, and keep investing the profits in quality stocks like Infosys, L&T, Colgate etc. I agree with you this is not the time for fresh investments, but definitely a time for booking profits in our holdings, stay in cash, and at the same time build up a quality stocks portfolio slowly. I strongly recommend our portfolio should consist of more than 60% cash & less than 40% stocks. Rgrds.
Thanks sir for your reply and guidance
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali,
ReplyDeleteJust saw your post reg Google blog user limitation. Please refer to wordpress.org, you may not be having such limitations here.
Hope this will help you.
Thanks,
Indian.....