Nifty Futures 11AM Call
11AM...Nifty Futures opened today at 4811 against its previous close of 4841, and is currently trading at 4810. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 4820 & a LOW of 4790. Asian cues are negative, US futures are in negative, and European markets may open in negative today. The trading range for NF today is 4730-4830.
Trading Calls
11.08AM...NF now at 4818. Go SHORT. SL 4839. Target 1 - 4768. Target 2 - 4739.
1.09PM...NF now at 4817. Square the SHORT for now, and be in the sidelines for SHORT at higher level.
2.20PM...NF now at 4810. Go SHORT. SL (strict) 4824. Target 4760.
3.17PM...NF now at 4828. SL of 2.20PM trade hit. Sorry.
Market Closing Report
Nifty futures closed the day at 4737, down 4 points after touching a high of 4838. The morning low of 4790 remained the low of the day.
NIFTY OUTLOOK
Nifty had a mildly bearish trade today in line with negative global cues, but managed to hold on to the 4800 level for the fifth consecutive day, to close the day at 4808, down 21 points. FIIs net sold 44cr & DIIs net sold 6cr. Nifty trading in small range for the last five days indicates buyers' fatigue at higher levels.
Nifty Levels for 15.09.09 Tuesday are: PIVOT 4809, R1 4832 & R2 4855, S1 4786 & S2 4763.
thanks for the call kadiyali sir
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali, I have very silly doubt. In the morning though the market was down .75 %. I was analysing the 4600PE and i see that TSQ > TBQ and that too 3 times. Any technical reasoning for that sir?
ReplyDeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteGdmrning . Do you expect nifty to substantially break 4800 today?
kadiyaliji,
ReplyDeleteShorted 3lots @ 4808
sree
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ReplyDeletegve me cler ided wht im doing wth my 4600pe[avg--rs/62] ,shld i sqre off or hold it ,bcause im suffr to much tencs wth my 6 lots.
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ReplyDeletesabya, I dont answer repetitive querries. If you read all my comments, you get answer. In any case, I had recommended 4600PE to buy below 60, how come you have 62 average? If you cannot take tension in options trade, better dont do it. You may wait today for nifty to fall substantially from the current level say 4760, and close your trade & come out of your tension.
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ReplyDeleteDear kadiyali,
ReplyDeleteI hold 4 lots 4600 put at 50 and 2 lots 4500 put at 40. I dont have any calls. Should i wait till your 4600 target of 120. Please suggest when can i exit. What is maximum downside you expect before this expiry.
Thanks
pranesh, if the current rally takes nifty any where near 5000, nifty low for this expiry will be 4600. If not, you can expect it touch 4500.
ReplyDeleteSir if nifty corrects , what can be regarded as a good level to accumulate?
ReplyDeletesir aban 1520 can i short it for intra day
ReplyDeletegaurav, there is risk involved in Aban shorting today. If nifty refuses to fall below 4790, then Aban can zoom.
ReplyDeletesir, u think nifty is getting support at 4800 and we shld exit all are shorts or can hedge
ReplyDeleteYeh 4800 ki deewar tootati kyon nahi!!!!lol
ReplyDeleteAmbuja ka zor hai tutegi nahi.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGood morning Kadiyalliji,
ReplyDeleteCan I short NF now at 4804?
ravi
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ReplyDeleteThanks kadiyaliji.. i will exit 4500 put whenever get chance and continue hold 4600 put.
ReplyDeleteGaurav, Aban now at 1522. Short now for intraday.
ReplyDeletewell we have wait patiently and see which way Its gonna head UP or DOWN! ;) lol
ReplyDeleteHaldar , all hints to your question have been answered already today . Scroll for messages above from kadiyali.
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ReplyDeletekadiyali sir may i buy amrutanjan now for delivery
ReplyDeleteDear Sir, Bought 500 COUNTRY CLUB today at 19.10 and will keep till target achieved.
ReplyDeleteThanks..Krishnan
ABAN above 1540 can move till 1578. Just for Info.
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ReplyDeletekaha tha na 4800 ki deewar nahi tutegi
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ReplyDeleteNF now at 4817. Square the short for now, and be in sidelines for a higher short.
ReplyDeleteDear PM,
ReplyDeleteA good idea to buy shares in delivery (say country club), is to wait when KAdiyali gives a short NIFTY call or NIFTY when trades in lower part of Kadiyalis day range.
For today you could have waited till NIFTY reaches 4730 to buy country club @ 18.
I generally do that with success.
Regards
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ReplyDeleteDear Shubra, Many thanks for your suggestion. I am learning - it's another lesson. Will follow such trades in future. Thanks...Krishnan
ReplyDeleteSKHaldar, 14 comments from you out of 37 so far! I feel you would do well for this blog if you become a silent visitor in the interest of hundreds of visitors coming here. Please.....
ReplyDeleteSir, NF sold @4802 was squared @4813.
ReplyDeletewill wait for your next call on the short. Is it expected by 2:30 or before that sir?
Iam taking a bit of risk here by holding on to the shorts and hoping dowf does't recover too much.
ReplyDeleteDear PM,
ReplyDeletePlease also remember KAdiyalis another strategy. If you buy country club today worth Rs 10000 you should have 40000 cash to average 2 more times worth Rs 20000 each. Say at Rs 15 and Rs 12.
Regards
sir, do tell us when 2 clear 50 % of our portfolio as when the correction starts the down freeze never let u sell..
ReplyDeleteSir one thing confirm that as per your and many other analyser are expecting market to correct and on following all views of best analysers retailers are dealing in f&o market and now ppl are either short or no position.
ReplyDeleteNow my query is do u belive that Big players allow retailer to earn, and i strongly belive that they will not and they will keep market up up and up till this expiry.
Thanks again Shubrashankar. Will take care on this too.
ReplyDeletesathish/vivek, trend is definitely down from today, but bulls are likely to make a last minute attempt today to get maximum for their longs before becoming bears themselves. On the upside, NF may just touch our SL of 4839, and fall back.
ReplyDeleteVivek can cover your short as NF is now at 4807, and go long for 30 points again.
my request to all of you before posting ny querries read the the entire blog and you willfind the answer as manty keep asking same questions.this will help kadiyali to give better performance
ReplyDeleteSir, Pardon me for the inconvinience. All comments removed.
ReplyDeleteSKHaldar, thanks a lot.
ReplyDeleteShubhra, whatever few shares I recommend for delivery based investment or short term trading, if the shares fall below my recommended price, it is extra bonus. If you buy today COUNTRY CLUB at say 18 for a target of 60 before 31.07.2010, whatever levels you find below 18 is a strong buy.
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali,
ReplyDeleteThanks for more clarification. Just Witing to buy Country Club @ 18. I also have free shares of CC.
Do you suggest to hold multibaggers above NIFTY 5000+ and average them only when NIFTY falls to 4000- ?
Regards
if you are short in bell wait i feel it will fall to 2240 today before closing
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali Sir,
ReplyDeleteI've 4800PE @ 81. Do you advice to keep it? Or should i square off at 95 now. And wait for right time to enter?
Kindly advice
Shubhra, all my MULTIBAGGER picks are for long term, and long term outlook for nifty is definitely bullish. So for all multibagger picks, whatever strategy I have already explained should be followed. i.e. If it doubles from your buy price, sell 50% to make the balance 50% free. If it touches the Downward Risk (DR) level stipulated, buy more & more. Below the DR, it is just a blind buy.
ReplyDeleteIve noticed one thing, when now nifty drifted below 4800, 4800PE is falling & 4800CE is rising. Any indications?
ReplyDeletePLEASE ADVICE THE ENTRY LEVEL FOR SUNTV AND IS THE ANY SL TO HAVE FOR IT, THANKS
ReplyDeleteCurrently longs & shorts are evenly matched. If NF breaks the current high of 4823 within next 30 minutes, we will see 4845. If not, 4750 is possible.
ReplyDeleteDear KAdiyali,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the clarification. As per your recent views (Bonus and StockSplit) does Amrutanjan qualify for a Multibagger ?
Regards
NF premium over spot is on the verge of disappearing.
ReplyDeleteShubhra, Amrutanjan main activity is not showing much growth, unless they opt for diversification. If they opt to develop their Mylapore property, the income from this new line will be multifold from their main activity. What should attract us is a small equity of 3 crores. It could turn out to be a multi, multi bagger. All depends on how management acts next few months.
ReplyDeleteSir can you enlight your view on RIL and GRASIM
ReplyDeleteSee my 2.20PM call. strict SL.
ReplyDeleteYou have mentioned "NF premium over spot is on the verge of disappearing". Kindly inform how it will alter the market position regarding downward or upward trend.
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali,
ReplyDeleteThanks for clarification. Holding Amrutanjan @ 353. So, I will not be surprised if you give another buycall on Amrutanjan after 2 months @ 700+, depending on diversification.
Regards
thre is any chnce tht nifty go blow 4750.
ReplyDeleteSabya that is a multi million dollar question :-D
ReplyDeletepaddy, if future trend is up, NF will be in premium, and if it is down, it will be in discount.
ReplyDeletesabya, my recommendation for nifty 4600PE is to buy below 60 for a target of 150. It unfortunately went to a low of 24. Friday I have recommended for averaging. If you can take the tension, AVERAGE your trade.
ReplyDeleteKeeping nifty above 4800 for the 5th day today, systematic distribtion has taken place. I will not be surprised if nifty breaks below 4500 in this expiry.
ReplyDeleteisr,i wnt to knw how much amt payble for nifty fut.intra montly wise.
ReplyDeleteJKJain, no retail trader is holding positional shorts in the market. In fact shorts have dried up once nifty went past 4750. Now only positional longs are being created with the hope of 5000. All big players are busy accumulating those shorts against longs created so far. It will in their interest if nifty falls from now.
ReplyDeletesabya, you can start one lot (50) NF trading with 35K. If you do not want to expose that, you can start one lot (20) of MINI NIFTY intraday trade, and accumulate profits gradually to trade in one lot of NF.
ReplyDeleteIt looks more far fetched now to achieve a price of 150 or even 120 on 4600 put. From the current nifty level of 4800, the market needs to crack at least 250 points within next 3 days to show 120 on 4600 pe. Thats a correction of 5.2%. Or has to correct 7.2% till the expiry.
ReplyDeleteWhether there are triggers for such a decline amidst strong put writing at 4800, 4700; i doubt. So as much as i would like to see the markets tank by 5-7% (tonnes of 4500 and 4600 puts), i am not very hopeful of a profitable exit.
bt sir as a small trder i have no capacty to br more thn rs/1500 for nifty fut.intra [monthlywise tips] ,evn i wld 3times mailing to p. suresh ,bt there is no confmtion abt it.wht do u sggst to me.
ReplyDeletehello Sir,
ReplyDeletelast 15mins of the trade....can we sqr off our shorts ?
Regards
Sandip
SL hit sir
ReplyDeleteSL gone...
ReplyDeleteNf now at 4828. SL of second trade hit. Sorry.
ReplyDeleteNo point fighting the inevitable. The market is going to keep going up... too many people expecting correction => its not going to happen anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteNifty , Aban !! blast off in to the skies.
ReplyDeleteKadiyali sir.. a small suggestion.. with this volitile market.. we shd aim for 20-30 poitns even 15points..instead of 50points because our margin money is reducing just hitting STOP LOSSES....
ReplyDeleteManoj, it is for the 5th day that they are maitaining 4800 levels, can they do it for next 10 days? When money inflow does not come to take nifty up, they will close the longs & take fresh shorts.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow will be a gap down day after a long time. Nf may open below 4790 tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteatlast, some rays of hope...........
ReplyDeletejay, when sufficient buys are not taking place to feed their shorts kitty, the SL of intraday shorters were eaten for swelling their shorts position. They will enjoy tomorrow with a gap down & go on adding further to their shorts. Nifty low of 4500 in this expiry is certain.
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali,
ReplyDeletehave 6 pe (incl.both4500&4600) at average of Rs.49.58(including brokerage).
I hope and believe it will end in a profit. But the mental tension is really too much and this is where your words are required.
regards.
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ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali,
ReplyDeleteNow I am feeling relaxed (?).
Last two months, I lost almost all premiums for puts. I really have heavy position in PUTs this expiry also. Hope, market will fall heavily in this expiry (atleast 4400-4500). Only then, i will able to cover my investments.
Do you think, RIL 1920 PA also give us some profits (2 lots @ 15.50)? Holding PUTs 4400(6 lots), 4500(8 lots), 4600(4 lots), 4700(2 lots) and 4800(2 lots).
Hope for the BEST!!!!!!!
im cmpltly agree wth sreeram ,in ths volatile market 15--20-30 pts. engh. as per my view always traling at b.e point.
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali, you think the fall what you talking about in current moth will stop at 4500 or will it go down further & what you anticipating 3600 nifty will come in September & October only ? your input will be highly helpful
ReplyDeleteDear Kadiyali Sir, I have TTML 10000 shares @ 33.00, Could u plz share the downside risk (DR)? thanks
ReplyDeleteso sir pls snd me ur bnk dtails fr amt drpping & it bttr tht confrmation through mobile .pls call me or gve me ur mo..no..my mo..no..is 9339301023
ReplyDelete