Wednesday, September 16, 2009

DAILY REPORT ON NIFTY BY kadiyali - 16.09.09 (Wednesday)

Nifty Futures 11AM Call

11AM...Nifty Futures opened today at 4929 against its previous close of 4899, and is currently trading at 4921. It has so far recorded a HIGH of 4954 & a LOW of 4917. Asian cues are positive, US futues are in green, and European markets too may open in positive tracking US & Asian gains. Nifty will trade in positive well above 4900 for major part of the day, but may end the day below 4900. Trading range for NF is likely to be 4860-4970.

Trading Calls

11.20AM...Intraday Call given yesterday at 12.30PM to GO SHORT at 4895 with Targets of 4845 & 4819, and converted to POSITIONAL at 3.22PM. HOLD THE SHORT for a Target of 4795. No SL.

Market Closing Report

Nifty futures closed the day at 4968, up 69 points, after touching a high of 4972 & a low of 4917.

NIFTY OUTLOOK

Nifty continued further its upward movement to post its highest close for the last 15 months, and ended the day at 4958, up 66 points. FIIs net bought 1105cr & DIIs net bought 143cr. Nifty has now reached a stage from where any upward movement will be less in magnitude whereas any fall from here will be steep.
Nifty levels for 17.09.09 Thursday are: PIVOT 4940, R1 4985 & R2 5011, S1 4913 & S2 4868




142 comments:

  1. what to do with yesterday's carry overs?

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  2. Sandip, yesterday's intraday short trade taken at 4895 has been converted into positional, and hence hold it for a target of 4795.

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  3. what is the time frame fr the 4795 target?

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  4. hilly, I find you very much like BHEL. One day you go short and the next day long. It is good to concentrate only in a few stocks for intraday. Unfortunately I dont track BHEL.

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  5. Can I short fresh (yesterday i don't took any position) one lot each in NF and Mini Nifty at this level?

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  6. Sir,
    Two questions:
    1. NF is now in discount. what does it mean?
    2. Bought 2 lots of 4700pe at 16.40 to avg previous puts. Shd I hold it or square off?
    Open Positions:
    4400pe - 1 lot @ 40.00
    4500pe - 2 lot @ 24.50
    4600pe - 1 lot @ 47.00
    RIL 1920pa - 1 lot @ 6.00

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  7. scorp_green... positional short

    kadiyali Sir can i short around 4935?? for just intraday.. or will we see some bounce on FTSE open??

    pleaes provide NF range for today sir..

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  8. sir, wht abt unitech shorts carried..cn v shrt nifty at present level

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  9. sir, i knw u track unitech very well as i hav seen the levels u give..plz guide as i hav not hedged

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  10. Prabhanshu ,

    The 4400 and 4500 PE of yours will expire worthless.. better to preserve your capital and take watever you get.. one right trade will get all your money back.. important thing is to have the capital.. even a big bear would now agree that nifty to tank below 4600 is very very difficult..

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  11. A positional long could have fetched us a fortune of profit. 5000 seems to tch first than. 4850

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  12. Kadiyali,

    I have been reading your calls for quiet sometime and i have noticed in the past that you fail , when you break your own rules.. you did that by carrying an overnight position.. else even if you are bearish.. you would have got a better position to square today if losses were booked yesterday..

    Hope this time its an exception..

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  13. Sreram, my NF range for the day is already in my 11AM report.

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  14. Sandeep

    I wonder how We retailers are always sucked into longs/shorts against the trend. it happens all the time.

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  15. When I keep posting my comments people ask me to refrain and quit this blog, why should I quit, yes kadiyali can make this blog pvt and allow access through passwords if he wishes to, he failed miserably last months and we lost heavily in calls, now this month everyone lost heavily in puts.

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  16. Thats bcoz we trade on our hopes vivek, rather than following the market cues. Every1 was bullish n expecting 4950 in the expiry n we were shorting one after another failures.

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  17. Sid,

    Dont follow him simple.. :)

    Waise i think he is doing a great job.. everyone is wrong sometime or the other..

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  18. scorp-green, if you have been reading my posts, and have noticed I have failed, there is no reason for you to hang on to this blog. You are welcome to find a better blog than this, and recommend the same to hundreds of visitors who visit this blog daily. Those who have faith in this blog will no doubt continue to visit, and the dark blue counter at the top right corner of this blog will speak about the usefulness of this blog in the days, weeks & months to come.
    Sorry if my reply hurts you from any angle.

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  19. I can't even think of one long trade in nifty in its run from 4580 to 4950. Atleast we should have been long from 4760, the breakout level which everyone was talking about.

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  20. Dear K'Sir,
    Lots of discussion are happening in this blog but what is overall outcome of september series.
    Regards
    akr

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  21. Hi kadiyala taken your weekly option call

    5000Ce&4600PE(both 2lots combined price came arround 58+10(brokerage).Now it is 50.what do u suggest to hold till expiry or........

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  22. I wish if my query be replied by you Kadiyali.

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  23. Vivek, yes and that was the time kadiyali asked us to buy our first 4600 puts at 60 and I was surprised why puts after breakout happened?

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  24. Kadiyali,

    I think you took my message in a wrong way.. I only highlighted that you fail when you break your own rule.. i never said you fail always..

    ofcourse i find this blog useful and i will continue to visit :)

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  25. Let bygones be by gones ppl, no 1 can do nethng abt them. Market at its peak , may be 5000 at most in this expiry, atleast thats what i feel. So a downside should be round the corner .....sumwhr.

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  26. Guys.. let Kadiyali concentrate on todays trade...

    please for the sake of other small investor like me pls continue this discussion after market hours...

    Thanks

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  27. There is nothing to submit that this blog is a waste or useful, it is just to submit that there is big room for improvement and fine tuning by kadiyali ji, so that his calls and success ratio is high and people do not make losses month after month

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  28. According to me market will correct after hitting all STOP losses @ 5K.. Wat wud be there to watch is that if this wud happen before expiry or after expiry.. Just my view..

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  29. Sid

    That comment i made was in my personal exchange with sandeep. Nothing against this blog/kadiyaliji.

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  30. scorp, thanks for your support. A blog clocking almost 16000 hits in just 2 months, and drawing an average of 500+ visitors per day will not draw this kind of traffic unless the visitors find some use in visiting. Thanks.

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  31. sir, plz reply unitech and nifty shrts at these levels

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  32. Dear mr.Kadiyali
    Your SUNTV & COUNTRY CLUB delivery calls are flying!!!!!!
    but NF & options calls are eating the profit of delivery calls.
    So suggest more delivery calls please

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  33. Hi kadiyala taken your weekly option call

    5000Ce&4600PE(both 2lots combined price came arround 58+10(brokerage).Now it is 50.what do u suggest to hold till expiry or........

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  34. Friends,
    We should not made this blog as another MMB. Its an humble request. No offence meant to anyone.

    Scorp,
    Thanks for your views on my trade. I bought 4700pe to avg 4400/4500pe trade.

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  35. Thanks Kadiyaliji,
    I got reasonable profit from ARVIND and BALAJITELE.I did sold and it covered the part of the loss made in option.I think again I will buyback when nifty falls.I think many of them profited in OBC and RCOM also.so in sum loss may less.in the past I tried many product no one will give u online answer immediately like Mr.Kadiayali.and plese balance ur money in both trading and short term invest IT WILL PROTECT THE CAPITAL,After see his performance in MMB I am the one joined immediately to his OPTION BLOG.once the intial dust settled we will find a real picture whic will be crystal clear.NO DOUBT AT ALL.
    THANKS
    RAJ/QATAR.

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  36. Kadiyali ji,
    shall i go for oct 4900pe now?

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  37. Kadiyali,

    Although i follow my own instinct for trade but i always make sure to read your views..I have been reading your post even before this blog came in and have always found it useful..

    I always noticed that you never carry overnight Future position so was kinda surprize and so highlighted the same..

    Apologize if i have offended you.. i didnt intend too..

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  38. Hi kadiyala taken your weekly option call

    5000Ce&4600PE(both 2lots combined price came arround 58+10(brokerage).Now it is 50.what do u suggest to hold till expiry or........

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  39. Kadiyali Sir,
    Its of no doubt that ur reccos through this blog has helped tremendously over the past. Kindly also regard that, we are small investors , and losses hit us much harder than profits. Thats why we react much vigourously on losses than on profits.

    Definately its not to point any credibility doubt to your experience , which we regard highly , but its more of a request fr a lil more refined reccos. I hope you will undastand our feelings.


    Regards
    Sandip

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  40. Hi kadiyala taken your weekly option call

    5000Ce&4600PE(both 2lots combined price came arround 58+10(brokerage).Now it is 50.what do u suggest to hold till expiry or........

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  41. NF in discount since start today by 1-2points.. does that suggest anything.. though Adv:Dec ratio is bullish

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  42. Sir, could you still recommend of holding 4600 puts?

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  43. Hi kadiyala taken your weekly option call

    5000Ce&4600PE(both 2lots combined price came arround 58+10(brokerage).Now it is 50.what do u suggest to hold till expiry or........

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  44. Dear Sir,

    For me this blog is very useful, though, I do not trade much in OPTIONS and Futures. Your all calls on stocks were extremely good and I made good profits out of it. I decided not to trade in OPTIONS as the loss was more compared to the profits in addition to the tension I have to carry.

    Please continue to guide small investors like us and do not get disturbed/disappointed by messages by those, who made/make loss due to one or two trades.

    Request to all co-blogites - PLEASE UNDERSTAND THE RISK INVOLVED IN OPTION / FUTURE TRADES AS KADIYALI SIR INFORMED EARLIER.

    Thanks...Krishnan

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  45. pasi, you may book profit in 5000CE if NF goes past 4950 again, and reduce the cost of your 4600PE, and hold the same till expiry.

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  46. Krishnan, as already explained yesterday, those who want to post negative comments here will get a tool only in options recommendations. They will speak as if they have followed ONLY MY LOOSING OPTION RECOMMENDATIONS, without following any of my other trading calls. This tool I can remove within a second, if I stop posting my option strategies. Once that is done, they will not get any room for negative comments.

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  47. pasi, please stop posting comments for the sake of posting comments. Please.....

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  48. Sorry kadiyali,if u feel any inconvinience.I am not -ve on your calls this is my first day in your blog.Please dont take me wrongly I am not like others who posts -ve comments

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  49. No Kadiyali, let them speak whatever they wish.
    You dont bother about that.
    We need your call in options as well as NF/Mini Nifty

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  50. pasi, when I replied your querry asking you to "book profit in 5000CE if NF goes past 4950 again, reduce the cost of 4600PE, and hold the same till expiry", where is lack of clarity to "add some more 4600PE"?

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  51. Thank you Kadiyala.I was not much clear with the words "reduce cost of 4600PE" I have understood this as "adding some more puts at less cost hence averaging the price" .I have asked you to confirm this only.

    Anyways I am not questioning/commenting your call.
    Thanks again

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  52. Great work kadiyali sir,

    My first visit to ur blog...
    i agree with u...
    Nifty will correct.... and before current expiry....

    moreover current weeek it shud go below 4700...

    big players looking for more money pumped in...

    good work kadiyali ji...

    best regards
    Richestuser

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  53. Jay, decision already taken.

    Option recommendations only in Options Blog. Trading calls in NF only through SMS. All trading calls given to SMS Group, whether successful or not, will appear in this blog immediately after the result of the call. Excepting for this small change, so as to remove the tool for negative comments, this fiftypointsaday blog will be finetuned to make it more & more useful.

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  54. sir, requesting ..r u tracking unitech

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  55. Richestuser, thanks for your visit & support. I had informed MMB boarders when nifty was trading below 4350 that "I will not be surprised if nifty touches 5000 by 15.09.09", and today on 16th we see where nifty is.

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  56. manu, not tracking Unitech today too.

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  57. Sir, Please re-confirm you continue to give trading calls on stocks (delivery buys) through this blog.

    Thanks..Krishnan

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  58. Hi Richi,
    how r u ?
    Welcome to Kadiyali's blog.

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  59. richestuser, nifty will have a downward leg of at least 250 points from today's peak, and by chance nifty loses 300 points from today's peak, we will see a level below 4400. This view does not take into account expiry date.

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  60. Dear All,

    For the last 3 days lots of people here have been battering kadiyali ji.. There are some who has gone to the extent of telling that he is always at the wrong side of the trade.

    Can I remind you all of the last expiry when he had predicted 4700 when markets were languishing at 4350. It happened and we all rejoiced.

    Its so sad to see people forget the past because of 1 wrong trade.

    Anyways kadiyali sir keep up the good work ! ur indeed a true gentleman

    regards
    vyas

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  61. Krishnan, my comment is very clear. Only options in Kadiyali Options Blog, and NF tradiing calls by SMS. All other segments will not only continue but will be finetuned. It is good from the point of view of small investors like you. We will make this blog one of the most popular blogs in this category. Just keep a watch on the COUNTER to know the popularity.

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  62. looks like we will have a procession of new highs

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  63. Vyas, this is a free blog, and will continue to be free. When 500+ visitors come here daily with some good purpose, you cannot avoid negative comments by a few 5 or 10. Even the scope for that will be eliminated in the days to come.

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  64. yes kadiyali ji, mee too with same view...
    i m holding short NF 4828 till yesterday....have averaged them today..

    now holding shorts at 4875....in huge quantity...

    let us wait for this downfall to happen...

    I m headged with 5000 call....
    but will face loss of more than 6 L...if nifty reaches 5100...

    so eagerly waiting for market to tank down..

    Richestuser

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  65. sir please carry on with your good work we all are benifited with your calls and you are requested to ignore few people who dont want to see the sucess of this very popular blog. again iam requesting you in behalf of the all boarders of this blog for continue ue nifty call.
    thxs sir

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  66. What if the suggested targets are met ? Are all the panicking boarders ready to accept the same bashing back from Kadiyali ? If yes, please continue to panic.. If not, please do not visit this blog... Simple... Rgrds...

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  67. Dear Sri.Kadiyaliji
    Generally NF will be in premium when compare to nifty. Now it is in the reverse direction. Is there any effect on our trading because of this happenings.

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  68. mr.kadiyali we dont want you to answer all all wanted querries.whatever advise u put on ur blog we accept it in good faith.those who dont want let them go away and stop criticising

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  69. It happens when communicating in huge groups like kadiyalas blog.People come here with lot of trust towards this blog later will become adverse due to various reasons .But still they will siltently follow this blog for calls.

    If you can avoid this feed back section(in the form of comments..etc)from people and simply giving your calls it would be great.

    This is my humble suggestion to kadiyala.
    I have visited this blog today amidst the fire going on here therfore kadiyala took me wrongly.

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  70. pasi, still you have not understood my comment. I have still not taken you wrongly. You raised a querry reg nifty stradle of 4600PE & 5000PE, and I replied in clear words. You had raised that querry 3 times, after which I replied. But even after a clear reply, you raised a doubt for which scope was not there in my reply. I only wanted you to reduce the comments to a level where it is needed, and no more. Absolutely no question of taking you wrongly.

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  71. hilly, I am taking so much of time today to put an end to adverse comments done by only 3-4 people for the last 3 days. The loope holes which were available till now stand plugged. Rest assured, there will not be any scope for adverse comments at all in future. Let the blog be free, and continue in the same style. Only then it will go on attracting the visitors.

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  72. any new update on nifty now.look like market is sideways

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  73. Boarders can we see a level of 4800 atleast before expiry ?

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  74. Sir,

    Please nifty ko bolo ki niche gire....

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  75. through out the day NF trading in a discount. Is tht the first sign of a tracebak sir?

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  76. one imp thing we are forgetting is the dollar..it is making the difference..ur views sir..

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  77. Sandip, nifty is clearly in an over bought zone, and naturally now on NF may continue in small discount, which may gradually increase if nifty falls.

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  78. It is ok Kadiyala take it lite.The main problem here is huge traffic ,the reason I have posted 3 times was my posting is surpassed another 4,5 comments and in hurry to bring my query to your view I have posted so many times.That was the only reason.Anyways do u find any value addition of comments from people other than unncessary time waste.Here Kadiyala is working on calls others keep posting till the EOD and next day waiting for kadiyala to wake up

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  79. ir, Can I MAYTAS Infra now? Thanks...Krishnan

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  80. Kadiyali,

    Even though am short and reentered one more short (1 lot) i had squared off yest at 4935 today, i think that we may see a repeat of yest.

    FII buying of 700 crore almost daily and they wont allow markets to fall much but will want SL of all shorts to trigger.

    Also markets are taking support at this 4925 now and trying to break free of 4938 to touch HOD.

    DISC is lessening when mkts are inching lower and things are not coming as we expect...
    Aghhh....

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  81. Dear pasi, Why you are greeting KADIYALI SIR as 'kadiyala"? Thanks...Krishnan

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  82. Hi Kadiyali ji,

    Dunno why all these guys blame you for miss hit calls. Itz r choice to follow or not to follow you. Anyways, your views on Powergrid r warranted. It just does not move at all. Kindly comment plz.

    Regards,

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  83. Another EOD short coverings to take place might push NF more higher .

    Waiting to see red , everywhere red , we need bloodshed on dallal street !! :-D

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  84. Dear Kadiyali,
    Earlier today, I asked if I could short fresh one NF as well as one Mini Nifty at 4935-4938 level. Your call was for those positional short NF from yesterday. That's why I am asking. will be gr8ful if you reply me. I wish to know either YES or NO.

    Thanks

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  85. Hi,
    kadiyali ji,
    Do you follow Aban and Cairn,if yes,then please advice for long or short ?

    Thanx and Regards,
    Arvind

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  86. jay, go for positional short if NF goes beyond higher band of my NF range.

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  87. Today also markets will not close below 4900 levels as suggested. I asked someone today in the morning that I am short on nifty and he said OPERATORS ARE LONG AND JOKERS ARE SHORT!!!

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  88. Sid are you suggesting we are jokers ?? :-D

    Anyways i do feel like one .

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  89. Kadiyali ji,

    Do you follow POWERGRID. If yes, please advise me.

    Regards,

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  90. I am a joker myself being short on market, today if market manage to close above 4938-4842 levels it will be even more bullish.

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  91. Dear All,

    Today there is too much traffic here in this blog and we are forgetting kadiyali sir great calls.

    I am noticing to all on weekend kadiyali sir asked me to buy AMRUTANJAN at that time it was around 460 to 470 level today it is trading at 530/-, this just example look at RCOM, OBC, BALAJI TELE, ATLANTA, towards STOCKS.

    And come back to OPTION recomendation every one pointing that kadiyali failed in OPTIONS but he was recomended 4200CE, 4300CE at around below 30/-, those gave almost 10 times with in 7 trading days, how you guy's forget those great calls? and some of the daily 50 points call's Ex go and read on MMB on budget day he alerted every one there is big crash at that time nifty was 35 points up and by EOD the nifty plungs 252 points, its very difficult to me explain all these great call's, some of them who followed him regularly those only come to know these.

    Ofcourse one wrong step is to getting out of 4500CE in augest expiry that because he wanted to buyback at lower but unfortunately that did not materialise for him.

    I have faith on him and will follow him and i am doing same since march, Rest is yours whether follow or not, def we can cover those losses in next trading call's

    Still his option calls on available in july weekly report in archive section and go read.

    Sorry guy's for incovenience.

    Thanks,
    Ramesh.

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  92. riskytrader, no I dont track powergrid.

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  93. Dear kadiyali sir,
    Besides holding free shares of your multibagger arvind, balaji,atlanta, kindly advise on sharesIhold ,Elecon
    electrosteel,Facor alloy,tanla, ISMT.. Should i sell these or hold ?

    regards
    bipin

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  94. amrutanjan @ 550+...............


    bipin

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  95. Dear kadiyali Sir,

    Please carry on the good work. No one should doubt your sincerity to help us as well as your expertise. I have benefitted a lot from your delivery calls and also from NF calls.

    Regards
    Arvind Katyal

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  96. sir i have maytas @75 shd i squre off now

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  97. sir, this is again a range bound day..plz share views on dollar..

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  98. WANTED- A correction of 8.9% in 5.5 trading sessions to see 4500.

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  99. Manoj you think 9% correction will come in next 5 days?

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  100. Sid ... Expect the unexpected ... Coz Today, no one is expecting it ...

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  101. Nifty futures are back in premium now so maybe closing will again take us at days high :(

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  102. highest ever open int 1 lk 17000cr in fno segment anytime fromnow heavy sell of may come and any long position use strict stop loss be cautious

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  103. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  104. Seems like all have bcum experts , frm ur influence Sir. ;)

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  105. last hour all will try to book profit and i feel mkt will come down .its better to wait before we jump and clear our shorts.last time i did same and lost .

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  106. Sandip, by keeping NF in a range for the last 6-7 days, they have reduced the earnings of intraday nifty traders.

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  107. thats true sir....can say that from my own experience. But wts next..5000 or 4800 :(

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  108. They cannot take NF up during intraday, they are using gap ups for the same.

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  109. One observation : front line index scrips , mostly are going in red

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  110. nifty shares are down but fut is up very strange

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  111. NF trades the whole day within the range of 27 points only !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  112. Every day they are creating a base and not allowing nifty to fall below it. Today its been around 4930. And who buys huge quantities in cash market at this stage? i don't understand how FIIs make money.

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  113. New day high to be seen due to short coverings and again a gap up opening tommorrow.

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  114. Sandip,

    No offence, just trying to help :-) If you dont see it the way I do, ignore me.

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  115. whats next 5000, 5100 .... looks like we all set to be doomed.

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  116. dow fut is + ..data is good e.u is almost 2 %..wht abt 2 morrow

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  117. SAme here. Looks like these bulls will take us through a ride thru hell and eventually when nifty will fell, we won't have anything left of us. HOlding 5 nifty shorts @ 4888. 80 points up from my shorting level.

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  118. Dear Kadiyali,

    I have 1 lot 4600PE @37/- and added one more lot @8.50/- Now average is around 23/-.

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  119. 2:46 PM - In an F&O call, hold Nifty September futures with a target of 4960 and stop loss of 4990, says Rahul Mohindar, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. No signal to go short yet, he adds.

    2:50 PM - In an F&O call, buy Nifty September futures with a target of 4975 and stop loss of 4915, says Sudarshan Sukhani, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. This is the time to stay long, he adds

    2:54 PM - In an F&O call, buy Nifty September futures with a target of 5000 and stop loss of 4880, says Prakash Gaba, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. This is a buy on dips market around Nifty 4920, he adds.

    2:57 PM - In an F&O call, buy Nifty September futures with a target of 5070 and stop loss of 4890, says Manoj Sachdeva, technical analyst, on CNBC Awaaz. This call is for the next 3-4 days, he adds

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  120. Kadiyali ji,

    Say something encouraging.

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  121. Another bad day :(, look how operators kept nifty futures in discount for entire day and now it is in premium by 4-5 points. I was not wrong when I said OPERATORS ARE LONG JOKERS ARE SHORT, I hope we make some money in this series else it will be repeat of August.

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  122. Wonder strategy by FII's,

    In 2 mins they take mkts from 4935 to 4955, everyones SL got triggered at 4952 (most shorts have SL at this level) and now not taking it even 10 points above this level.
    They wanted to close markets above 4950 deliberately by hook or crook.

    Inevitable may happen of what noones dreamed 5k before sep exp, all it needs os one flat day in US lol...
    4800-4900 calls which were dead cheap are flourishing now.

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  123. Kadiyali ji,

    I hope we have a gap down tomorrow instead of gap up. M long in Powergrid 4000 shares, but that just don't seem to move up, otherwise, it would have hedged my nifty shorts. HOpe for the best.

    Regards,

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  124. The way 4900 puts are being sold heavily at 40 levels it appears market would close above 5000 this expiry :(

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  125. manu, let us not add any further shorts. Once we come out of this short trade, we will concentrate only in intraday as before.

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  126. Sir , every 1 in CNBC suggesting to hold longs as gap upis expected . Kindly cnsider.

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  127. Another gap up tomorrow to 5000 is expected but we can't just do anyhting except holding our shorts.

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  128. Nightmare continues !!! Same story same drama .
    Looks like we are the only lot of people who are bearish.

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  129. Lets hope for the worst for markets for tomorrow to get out from our shorts in profit. I don't think their is any hope left for Nifty straddle now.

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